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DTN Midday Grain Comments     10/03 10:52

   Corn Futures Lower at Midday; Soybeans Higher; Wheat Mixed

   Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower at midday Monday; soybean futures are 6 
to 7 cents higher; wheat futures are narrowly mixed. 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower at midday Monday; soybean futures are 6 
to 7 cents higher; wheat futures are narrowly mixed. The U.S. stock market is 
firmer with the DOW up 660 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 60 points lower. 
Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are mixed with crude up 3.20, and 
natural gas is off .35. Livestock trade is mostly stronger with cattle leading. 
Precious metals are firmer with gold up 28.00.


   Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower at midday with trade working back to the 
middle of the range after the soft close Friday with harvest pressure and 
near-term demand to remain in focus this week along with outside markets with 
early strength fading. The stocks report was friendly with 1.38 billion bushels 
(bb) on hand versus 1.512 bb expected. Short-term forecasts have the center of 
the belt drier with warmer-than-normal temps over the next couple of weeks to 
keep harvest moving along. Progress on the weekly report is likely to remain 
just behind average along with maturity and conditions remaining steady. The 
export wire will need to show more life soon with nothing hitting last week. 
Weekly export inspections were disappointing at 661,658 metric tons (mt) with 
river issues remaining notable for shipping. Ethanol margins will likely chop 
along with softer driving demand and refinery disruptions to keep upside 
limited for now. Basis will be watched to see how quickly we go to harvest 
footing everywhere, and how aggressively the west will bid for corn in the 
deficit areas into early harvest with notable strength already while 
intra-month spreads remain off the highs. On the December chart, trade is just 
below the 20-day moving average at $6.78 and the recent high at $6.95 above 
that with the lower Bollinger Band at $6.59 as further support.


   Soybean futures are 6 to 7 cents higher with trade working to establish 
support after the washout Friday with continued harvest progress in the U.S., 
and planting progress in South America as demand concerns continue to linger. 
Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 lower and oil is 155 to 175 points higher. The stocks 
report showed 274 million bushels (mb) on hand versus 242 mb expected. South 
America has early planting underway with late demand picking up ahead of the 
U.S. export window with the dollar reversal needing to hold with Brazil in 
better shape than Argentina early on with varied short-term rain potential. 
Basis will continue to shift towards harvest footing with trade watching to see 
how quickly export shipments pick up into the end of the month with some 
further near-term basis pressure expected into October along with intramonth 
spread weakness adding carry in recent days. The daily wire saw some life with 
110,000 mt booked by unknown, increasing the demand concerns short term. Export 
inspections were disappointing at 575,220 mt. Weekly crop progress is expected 
to show harvest near the five-year average, and steady conditions. On the 
November soybean chart, trade has the 20-day moving average at $14.28 as 
resistance well above the market, with the lower Bollinger band at $13.54 as 


   Wheat futures are narrowly mixed with trade working to consolidate at the 
higher end of the range as trade waits for Northern Hemisphere crop planting 
and development along with further Black Sea developments to set direction with 
a test of the highs this morning before action faded. Wheat stocks were 1.78 bb 
versus 1.776 bb expected keeping support in place. The Plains look dry short 
term, but enough recent rains fell in some areas to keep planting moving 
forward with just above average progress expected with spring harvest likely 
wrapped up. MATIF wheat remains near the upper end of the range with choppy 
action to start the week backing off the highs as well. Weekly export 
inspections were solid at 667,577 mt. The KC December chart has support at the 
20-day moving average at $9.43, and the fresh high at $10.09 as resistance 
which we faded from this morning.

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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